Latest Analysis
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The Fed Sees Inflation. Every Other Market Disagrees. Here’s Why the Bond Market Is Right.
The Fed Sees Inflation. Every Other Market Disagrees. Here’s Why the Bond Market Is Right. Oil prices are surging. The Federal Reserve is threatening to raise interest rates. The financial media is buzzing about inflation. On the surface, the story seems obvious: prices are going up, and the central bank needs to act. But there’s…
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The Pringles Can Moment: Why Bond Markets Are Betting the Fed Will Hike Once — Then Panic
The Pringles Can Moment: Why Bond Markets Are Betting the Fed Will Hike Once — Then Panic If you’ve ever opened a Pringles can upside down, you know the chips are stacked in the wrong direction. Jeff Snider uses that image to describe where the Federal Reserve’s rate policy is heading — and the bond…
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June CPI Shocker: Why Falling Prices Are a Red Flag, Not a Victory Lap
June CPI Shocker: Why Falling Prices Are a Red Flag, Not a Victory Lap Prices fell sharply in June. That sounds like great news for your grocery bill — and on a personal level, it is. But in the world of global monetary mechanics, a sudden drop in the Consumer Price Index (CPI, the government’s…
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HSBC Is Walking Away from Private Credit — and That Should Terrify Retail Investors
HSBC Is Walking Away from Private Credit — and That Should Terrify Retail Investors One of the world’s biggest banks just quietly sent a loud signal to anyone paying attention. HSBC has told some of its private credit borrowers that it won’t be renewing their credit facilities — the revolving lines of funding that keep…
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The Oil Curve Just Went Flat — And That’s a Screaming Demand Warning
The Oil Curve Just Went Flat — And That’s a Screaming Demand Warning A few weeks ago, traders were screaming that oil was heading to $200 a barrel. Today, the oil futures curve — the market’s own roadmap of where oil prices are expected to go — has nearly flattened into a shape that says…
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Oil Is Falling — But Not for the Reason You Think: Curves, TIPS, and a Fed About to Repeat 2008’s Biggest Blunder
Oil Is Falling — But Not for the Reason You Think: Curves, TIPS, and a Fed About to Repeat 2008’s Biggest Blunder The headlines have a tidy story: Iran peace deal, oil supply comes back, prices drop. Makes sense. Close the tab, move on. But if you look at the full picture — the oil…